Luck in SCRABBLE® and Life as Viewed by One Hundred SCRABBLE® Players
Dennis Fenichel
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As part of my sabbatical project I planned on doing some reading on the topic of luck. My interest in this topic stems from my experiences trading stocks, playing Blackjack, and playing Scrabble. My subjective impression has always been that luck runs in streaks, and that one would be wise to recognize when luck turns for the worse. At the blackjack table it seems there are times when I will win hand after hand, not because I am clever, but because of the way the cards are falling. Then there are stretches where I will lose virtually every hand over a stretch of time, despite having wonderful hands that normally would be almost certain winners. The game of Scrabble involves a degree of randomness which makes the game at least partially dependent on luck, unlike the game of chess. This randomness comes from the drawing of new tiles on every turn, and the fact that the player has no control over what comes out of the bag on any given turn.
I decided to expand my sabbatical project by conducting a survey of Scrabble players to see how they perceived the effect of the element of luck in the game. I did not intend to conduct a rigorous scientific study, but was simply planning on asking some players a few simple questions, and seeing what they had to say. To my surprise I wound up surveying one hundred players, and though I did not plan it that way, wound up with an equal number of males and females.
The majority of players came from Minnesota and Wisconsin, and were all players who either play at organized Scrabble clubs and/or in Scrabble tournaments. This fact alone means that these players are considerably more serious about the game than the casual recreational player, who plays in the living room with family during holiday get-togethers. Club players study esoteric word lists in order to arm themselves with ammunition with which to beat their opponents, and play with a chess clock set so that each player has a total of twenty-five minutes per game. Going over this time limit results in a penalty. This means that club players are generally playing a much faster, more intense game, using words that the average person would not recognize as belonging to the English language. I interviewed players at club and during tournaments.
I was uniformly met with openness and willingness to cooperate. Though I did not ask players for their age, I know that the range of ages went from thirteen to mid-eighties.
I asked the following questions:
- How many years have you played Scrabble seriously, i.e. playing at club or in tournaments, studying?
- What is your current rating (approximate)?
- Thinking about your experience playing Scrabble, how much do you attribute to luck versus skill (in percentage)?
- Thinking about your life and the things that have happened to you and the way your life has unfolded, how much do you attribute to chance, i.e. things over which you don't have control?
- In any one game of Scrabble, how much do you attribute to luck versus skill?
Many people commented that the question about chance in their life was an interesting question, one that many people paused to consider before answering. Regarding the single game of Scrabble, a number of players specified that the answer they were giving was in the context of playing someone at a similar skill level.
I did not do any sophisticated statistical analyses. That was never my intention as I had no interest in publishing the results in a scientific journal. I basically calculated mean scores and will present the results in a descriptive format.
I decided to look at gender differences, differences between higher and lower rated players, and differences between players who had played the game for many years compared to relative newcomers to the game.
Gender Differences
There was a substantial difference between the sexes when it came to the
perception of luck in Scrabble and in life. For females (n=50) the mean score was 41% luck in Scrabble, and 42.2 % influence of chance in their lives.
For males (n=50) the comparable figures were 32.2% for luck in Scrabble, and 34.4% for the influence of chance in their lives. Regarding the influence of luck in a single game, the mean score for the women was 45.7%, and for the men 36.4%. While the data point to convincing sex differences, they do not point towards an explanation of these differences. I do not claim to have any more insight into this than anyone else, but one might hypothesize that males have a greater need to see themselves as being in control of their destiny, whether in a game or in life than do females. What I find interesting is that these differences show up consistently for all three questions about the role of luck or chance.
Rating Differences
I compared the answers of the top rated females (1400 up to 1840) (n= 11), with the lowest rated women (700 and below) (n=10). These results were interesting. The higher rated women attributed a mean percentage of 37.7 to luck in Scrabble, compared to 35% for the lower rated players. For a single game, the higher rated women said 39.1 % compared to 37.8 % for the lower rated women, a small difference, though in the same direction.When it came to the role of chance in one's life however, the results were reversed, with the higher rated women attaining an average score of 28.5%, and the lower rated women 34%. I find this interesting in that I would have expected the more highly skilled players to attribute less of a role to luck than the less skilled players.
For the men, I compared the highest rated (1620-1830)(n=9), with the lowest rated (800 and below) (n=8). Here in both cases the lower rated players attributed a larger role to luck or chance than the higher rated players. In Scrabble, the high rated men had an average of 35.7% luck, compared to 41% for the low rated males. For a single game, the comparable figures were 40.6% for the high rated men, compared to 44.1 % for the low rated males. Regarding the role of chance in life, the high rated men had a mean score of 33%, compared to 41.5% for the low rated men. While the numbers for the high rated men were quite comparable to the numbers for the entire male population in the survey, the numbers for the low rated men were considerably higher than the overall male scores, i.e. the lower rated players seemed to attribute a greater influence to luck or chance factors both in Scrabble and in life.
In comparing the responses of the high rated men with the high rated women, you will notice that the ratings of luck are consistently discriminating for the males, while for the females there is a reversal when the question is about chance in life versus luck in Scrabble.
Years Playing
For the women, I compared scores of women who had played at least 20 years (n=12), with scores of women who had played three years or less (n=11).The women who had played longer scored higher on both questions: 38.8% luck in Scrabble compared to 35%, and 39.3% chance in life compared to 36.8%. For a single game, the results were reversed, with the women who had played longer attributing 37.1% to luck, and the women who had played fewer years attributing 40.3% to luck. It is hard to make sense of this difference.
For the men I compared the scores of men who had played at least 20 years (n=10), with the scores of men who had played two years or less (n=10). The less experienced male players attained a mean score of 39% luck playing Scrabble, compared to 30.7% for the more experienced male players. For a single game, the results were almost identical for the more experienced and less experienced men (37.9% and 37.5% respectively). Regarding chance in life, however, the pattern was reversed, with the more experienced men attaining a mean score of 45.5%, compared with 40.2% for the less experienced male players. This difference was in the same direction as the females.
The results for the men makes more sense intuitively than the results for the females, when considering years of play. If one assumes that the men who have played considerably longer are probably on average older than the less experienced players, it would make sense that after playing Scrabble for twenty-plus years, they would see their skill as playing a greater role than luck, whereas in life, as a result of presumed acquired wisdom, they would recognize the significant effect of chance on how an individual's life plays out. Don't ask me why this same pattern doesn't hold true for the ladies. Of course assumptions and presumptions are dangerous, and if I were to expand on this informal survey and make it more scientifically rigorous, I would certainly ask about age, and factor that into the results.
Rating Data
For those with a morbid curiosity, the breakdown of ratings is as follows:
Females: Males:
1800 + 1 1800+ 3
1700+ 0 1700+ 3
1600+ 1 1600+ 3
1500+ 4 1500+ 5
1400+ 5 1400+ 5
1300+ 4 1300+ 3
1200+ 5 1200+ 5
1100+ 6 1100+ 6
1000+ 4 1000+ 3
900+ 8 900+ 4
800+ 2 800+ 1
700+ 1 700+ 2
600+ 2 400+ 1
500+ 1 Unrated 4
400+ 1
300+ 1
Unrated 4
Further Thoughts
Of course Scrabble players may be a breed apart from "normal" people, and it would certainly be interesting to compare the responses of Scrabblers to the question about the role of chance in life, to the answers of a comparably aged group of people who do not play Scrabble.
Another question that I would have like to inquire about, but did not because it seemed too personal, is the matter of an individual's belief in God or a higher power. One's belief about the influence of luck or chance, whether in a game or in life, might be tied into one's larger belief system about how the universe works, and who is pulling the strings.
